Same Stars.
Not the Same Trade.
Week of September 29 · SYF · MTSI · XPO
For the first time, every name on the board came back five stars. On the top band they look interchangeable. One band lower, their downside footprints differ by nearly four times.
One hike down. Most of them expect another.
On September 16 the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 — unanimous, 12–0, to 3.75%–4.00%. Chair Warsh was blunt about why: inflation is too high and has been for too long, and this summer's readings did not convince him underlying trends had improved.
The projections matter more than the move. Sixteen of eighteen participants expect at least one more hike this year, and four pencilled in two. The median sees roughly 4.1% at year end and again through 2027 — no cuts. Futures now imply about 4.3% by December. Long-dated yields are near twenty-year highs. The next decision lands October 27–28.
Something happened on this week's board that has not happened before. All three names came back with five-star reliability. Every previous issue has carried a three- or four-star somewhere. On the top band they look almost interchangeable: frequencies of 90.91%, 91.67% and 89.47%.
Read one band lower and they stop looking alike at all. Their downside footprints differ by nearly fourfold — between three setups that enter on the same Tuesday morning and carry the identical star rating. That gap is the entire reason we publish a downside band, and it is the difference between three positions sized on purpose and three sized by accident.
One structural note we will not bury. Our last issue closed before the Fed met. This one does not. Every window here holds through the October 27–28 decision, and each name reports earnings inside its own window. The longest, MACOM, runs to January 13 and spans two Fed meetings.
Start with Synchrony. It is open to you in full.
Everything on SYF below is complete — all twelve statistics, the dated entry and exit, the catalyst, the risk flags and the bottom line. Exactly as a member sees it.
It also happens to be the strongest name here: the highest profit factor on the board and the tightest downside record of the three. Read it against the two beside it and the difference in risk footprint becomes obvious.
Seasonal statistics describe past behaviour and do not guarantee future results.
The best risk-adjusted setup on the board
We are giving this one away in full, and we picked it deliberately. SYF has the highest profit factor on the board at 22.68 and the tightest downside record here by a wide margin — a 1.98% sigma, a worst year of just -6.58%, and a worst closing drawdown of -11.28%. It is also the shortest hold, closing November 25.
Look at what that downside band is telling you. Across eleven years, the bad years in this window were shallow and the drawdowns were contained. That is unusual for a consumer-credit name with a beta of 1.31, and it is the reason this one gets sized differently from the other two.
Synchrony is the quiet engine behind a lot of credit you have already used — the store cards and financing programmes for Amazon, Lowe's, Sam's Club, Walgreens and Verizon, plus CareCredit for medical and veterinary bills. Second-quarter earnings landed at $2.59 a share against a $2.09 estimate, a 24% beat, on record purchase volume and loan growth, and management raised the full-year EPS outlook.
The capital return story is real. The board approved a $6.5 billion buyback with no expiration date and lifted the quarterly dividend 13% to $0.34. Forty-one analysts average a target near $87.50 against a $73 price, with a range running to $104, and Barclays reiterated Buy in September. The company also named its first Chief AI Officer and is working with OpenAI on customer experience.
Two things. One: Synchrony reports third-quarter earnings on or around October 21 — inside this window, so you hold through the print. Two: this is a consumer lender in a hiking cycle. Higher rates squeeze exactly the borrowers Synchrony finances, and card delinquencies are the number to watch. The stock is down about 4% on the year and sits below its $88.77 52-week high.
A credit-card lender is genuinely two-sided on rates: higher rates widen the spread Synchrony earns, but they also stress the household balance sheets it lends against. With the Fed signalling more to come, this is a bet that the consumer holds up.
SYF is the best risk-adjusted setup on this board: a 22.68 profit factor, a 1.98% downside sigma, and the shortest hold at 41 days. Underneath sits a 24% earnings beat, a $6.5bn buyback and a 13% dividend raise. The honest caveats are an earnings print inside the window and a consumer-credit business heading into a tightening cycle.
The biggest average move on the board
MACOM leads this board on frequency (91.67%) and on annual win rate (76.92%), and carries the largest average move per trade of the three. It is also the longest hold on the list at 73 days — and its downside band is more than twice as wide as Synchrony's above. Those two facts belong together, and members see both.
The full write-up — catalyst, risk flags, rate lens and bottom line — continues inside Super Seasonal.
Nineteen years of data — the deepest history here
XPO brings nineteen years of history, the deepest track record on this board, and the highest efficiency score of the three. But its downside band is the widest here by a considerable margin — and on this particular name, the gap between the upside figures and the downside figures is the whole decision. Members see both columns.
The full write-up — catalyst, risk flags, rate lens and bottom line — continues inside Super Seasonal.
Three five-star setups, side by side
| Ticker | Rating | Freq. | Profit Factor | Hold | Worst Drawdown | Downside Σ | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYFSynchrony · unlocked | 5 / 5 | 90.91% | 22.68 | 41d | -11.28% | 1.98% | 11 |
| MTSIMACOM | 5 / 5 | 91.67% | 19.03 | 73d | -00.00% | 0.00% | 12 |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 5 / 5 | 89.47% | 8.06 | 56d | -00.00% | 0.00% | 19 |
The calendar tells you when. A workshop tells you how.
A seasonal window hands you a date and a downside figure. What it does not hand you is the structure — how to actually express the trade once you are in the window, and how to size it against the number in that third band.
Ryan Jones runs this live. There is $500 off on the table right now, and the offer is time-limited — full details, dates and what is covered are on the workshop page.
See the Workshop DetailsOptions involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Nothing here is personalized financial advice; see the workshop page for current pricing, dates and terms.
Same stars. Very different trades.
Three names, one entry date, identical five-star ratings — and one of them swings nearly four times harder than another. You cannot see that in a star rating. You can only see it in the band most services never print.
The goal was never to trade more. It was to trade fewer, better-prepared ideas — and to spend the rest of the week not worrying about them.
The Big Picture
Three five-star setups entering the same Tuesday, and almost nothing else in common.
Here is the single most useful thing this edition can show you. These three carry the same five-star rating and enter on the same morning, and their downside footprints differ by nearly four times. Under a four-statistic format they would have looked like the same trade. They are not, and sizing them as though they were is how a good week turns into a bad month.
That is the whole argument for the rebuilt board, and this week makes it better than we could have. Three identical ratings, three very different trades — and the only place that shows up is the band underneath.
Super Seasonal Trade Desk
Pulling back the curtain for 90 days.
See exactly what trades Ryan is taking, three times a week, for the next ninety days. This watchlist tells you when the calendar has favoured a setup. LaunchPad shows you someone actually trading one — with nothing edited out.
Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Trades shown are for education and illustration and are not personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
You have read Synchrony. The other two are where it gets interesting.
MACOM leads this board on frequency and win rate with the largest average move of the three — on a 73-day hold that spans two Fed meetings. XPO brings nineteen years of history, the deepest we have ever published, alongside the widest downside band here.
Both write-ups, and every number behind them, sit inside the platform. So does the scanner that surfaced all three.
See Membership OptionsSeasonal statistics describe past behaviour and do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is personalized financial advice.
