Week of May 25: Three Seasonal Setups Traders Should Have on Their Radar
The market is heading into the week with a little more breathing room.
After several choppy sessions, stocks bounced as Treasury yields pulled back and oil prices eased, helping calm some of the inflation worries that had been weighing on sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 jumped 2.6%, showing that risk appetite is still alive when rate pressure cools off.
That is an important backdrop for seasonal traders.
When the market is strong but still sensitive to interest rates, oil, and inflation, traders often look for individual stocks with their own catalysts. That is where seasonal analysis can be especially helpful. It does not predict the future, but it can point us toward names that have historically attracted buying interest during a specific part of the calendar.
This week’s top three seasonal setups are:
- ICON plc — ICLR
- Exelixis — EXEL
- Herbalife — HLF
Each one has a different story. One is a beaten-down healthcare research name. One is a biotech stock with real pipeline momentum. One is a contrarian consumer turnaround setup.
Let’s break them down.
The strongest seasonal setup, but with headline risk
Seasonal profile:
- Frequency higher: 91.7%
- Profit factor: 31.71
- Annualized return: 88.6%
ICLR has the strongest raw seasonal profile on this week’s list.
For newer traders, here is what that means in plain English: historically, this stock has had a very high tendency to move higher during this part of the calendar, and the size of the winning periods has been much larger than the losing periods.
That is the good news.
The caution flag is the company-specific backdrop. ICON is a contract research organization, or CRO.
It helps pharmaceutical and biotech companies run clinical trials. That is generally a high-quality corner of healthcare, but ICON has been under pressure after disclosing an internal investigation into accounting practices tied to revenue recognition from 2023 through 2025. The company said revenue may have been overstated by less than 2% in prior years and withdrew its 2025 guidance, which led to a sharp drop in the stock.
So why keep it at the top?
Because seasonal trading is often about finding moments where expectations may have gone too far in one direction. ICLR has already taken a major sentiment hit. When a stock gets punished hard, even modest stabilization can attract buyers again — especially if the historical seasonal window is strong.
That does not mean this is a low-risk setup. It means it is a high-stat, high-caution setup.
For beginner traders, ICLR is the kind of name to watch carefully. The seasonal data is impressive, but this is not a stock to chase blindly. The better approach is to watch for price stabilization, improving volume, and signs that investors are becoming less concerned about the accounting overhang.
Bottom line: ICLR has the best seasonal statistics in this week’s scan, but also the most headline risk. Strong setup, but risk management matters.
For the full seasonal window, log in to SuperSeasonal.com.
A biotech name with strong seasonal punch
Seasonal profile:
- Frequency higher: 82.6%
- Profit factor: 7.03
- Annualized return: 106.9%
EXEL is the growth-style name on this week’s list.
The win rate is not as high as ICLR’s, but the annualized return profile is the standout. In other words, when this seasonal pattern has worked historically, it has had real upside momentum behind it.
The fundamental story is easy to understand. Exelixis is a biotech company best known for Cabometyx, its cancer treatment. The company delivered a strong first-quarter performance last year, raised its full-year sales outlook, and benefited from momentum after Cabometyx received an expanded approval for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.
There is also a pipeline story. Investors have been paying attention to zanzalintinib, Exelixis’ next-generation cancer drug candidate. Positive study results in a hard-to-treat colorectal cancer setting helped reinforce the idea that Exelixis may have a longer-term growth story beyond Cabometyx alone.
That matters because biotech stocks often trade on catalysts. Earnings matter, but so do drug approvals, clinical trial results, new treatment indications, and pipeline updates. When those company-specific themes line up with a strong seasonal window, traders tend to pay attention.
EXEL is not the sleepy pick. It can move. That is part of the appeal, but it also means traders should expect more volatility.
Bottom line: EXEL has the strongest annualized return profile of the group and a clear biotech catalyst story. It is the aggressive growth setup for the week ahead.
For the full seasonal window, log in to SuperSeasonal.com.
The contrarian seasonal setup
Seasonal profile:
- Frequency higher: 89.5%
- Profit factor: 11.25
- Annualized return: 60.3%
HLF is the most contrarian name on this week’s list.
Herbalife is a nutrition and wellness company with a direct-selling model. It is not a clean, easy, widely loved stock. It has had years of debate around its business model, balance sheet, growth prospects, and investor sentiment.
But that is exactly what makes this setup interesting.
Seasonal trades do not always come from perfect companies. Sometimes they come from stocks where expectations are low, positioning is skeptical, and even a small improvement in the story can spark a sharp move.
Herbalife has been focused on improving financial performance, expanding margins, and reducing debt. The company previously completed a $1.6 billion secured refinancing designed to strengthen its balance sheet and address upcoming maturities.
That balance-sheet angle matters. Highly debated stocks often become more attractive to traders when one of the biggest concerns starts to ease. If investors believe the company has more breathing room financially, the stock can re-rate quickly — especially during a historically favorable seasonal period.
For newer traders, HLF is best viewed as a sentiment-reversal setup. It is not the safest stock on the board. But it has a strong historical win rate, a solid profit factor, and the kind of contrarian profile that can attract traders looking for a bounce.
Bottom line: HLF has a strong seasonal track record and a turnaround-style story. It is the speculative pick of the three, but the setup is worth watching.
For the full seasonal window, log in to SuperSeasonal.com.
The Big Picture
This week’s watchlist gives us three very different seasonal opportunities.
- ICLR is the strongest statistical setup, but it comes with company-specific headline risk.
- EXEL is the biotech growth name, backed by cancer-drug momentum and pipeline potential.
- HLF is the contrarian consumer stock, where sentiment and balance-sheet improvement could become the driver.
That mix is useful because the market itself is still mixed. Stocks are acting resilient, but traders remain sensitive to interest rates, oil prices, and inflation. In that kind of environment, the best opportunities often come from individual stories rather than broad market exposure alone.
The goal is not to predict the week perfectly. The goal is to prepare with an edge.
Seasonality gives traders a roadmap. It shows where buying has tended to appear before. From there, the job is to watch price action, manage risk, and avoid emotional decisions.
For the week ahead, the top three seasonal names are:
- ICLR — ICON plc
- EXEL — Exelixis
- HLF — Herbalife
As always, seasonality is not a guarantee. It is a probability tool. Use it to build a smarter watchlist, prepare for the week ahead, and focus attention on stocks with historically favorable calendar patterns.
For exact seasonal timing and the full trade window, log in to SuperSeasonal.com.
Trade well,
Chad Shirley
Risk Disclaimer: Seasonal patterns are based on historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All trading and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This newsletter is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. Always do your own research and use proper risk management before making any trade.
