In today’s Super Seasonals: Trade of the Week we will look at ICON plc (ICLR).
ICON plc operates as a clinical research organization, which engages in the provision of outsourced development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries. It specializes in the development, management and analysis of programs that support clinical development. It operates through the following geographical segments: Ireland, Rest of Europe, U.S. and Other. The company was founded in June 1990 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Below is a look at the seasonal patterns that the software uncovered since 1998. If we look at the Avg Move Up (+14.5%) versus the Avg Move Down (-4.42%), this exhibits an attractive volatility risk in my opinion, if one were to have a bullish seasonal bias.
A look at the last 5 years, shows us that there’s an Average Move Up of +7.48% over the next month and a half. Looking at the “mean”(the midpoint of the high/low) average of High Points is almost +12%.
Below is a 10-year Backtest if one were to have invested $1,000 every year to buy/sell shares during the seasonal period. It has a really nice Profit Factor of 7.74, meaning for every $1 it lost, it made $7.74 in gains.
Below is a look at the past 10 year Histogram Chart. As we can see the month of May until the end of July historically has a tendency to have a bullish push.
As you likely know, there are literally dozens of solid ways to approach trading ICON plc (ICLR) with a bullish bias.
The decision of how to best invest in the stock or trade the options is an individualized decision, unfortunately there is no one best way. Keep in mind that seasonality is about probabilities, not certainties.
Please remember to fully understand the risk before trading anything.
It’s recommended to do your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before investing in any stock or options trade.
To learn more about seasonal information on other solid opportunities, click here SuperSeasonals.
Trade Smart,
Chad Shirley
